Not a great weekend for tips in the first weekend of AFL finals. The trend is to overlook the form of the teams that lost the major finals and overestimate the form of the winners of the elimination finals. I’m resisting that and expect the teams that came first and second in the home and away season to win this weekend. I don’t have confidence about their ability to go further than that, but we’ll see.
I was disappointed that Cronulla and Wests didn’t tie and knock Brisbane out, but Paramatta will probably fix that this weekend.

NRL (last round 3/8; season tally 121/192)
Easts
Melbourne
Cronulla
Paramatta

AFL (last round 1/4; season tally 126/202)
Geelong
Brisbane

Finals begin this weekend in the AFL. I’m tipping Brisbane, without conviction. I do expect them to make one of the preliminary finals, though.
The NRL season finally grinds to a halt this weekend. Eighth spot is up for grabs. It’s a bit hard to know whether watching Paul Gallen or Robbie Farrah get a chance at one last final is more appealing. Both have been tremendous servants of their sport.

NRL (last round 7/8; season tally 118/184)
Easts
Manly
Melbourne
Canberra
Brisbane
Saint George
Wests
Penrith

AFL (last round 7/9; season tally 125/198)
Geelong
West Coast
Western Bulldogs
Brisbane

Well, last weekends thoughts about the final makeup of the AFL were only disturbed by West Coast losing and dropping from third to fifth. More on that next week.
In the NRL it’s sad that Matt Scott does not get a proper final game, a nice touch they have retired his number for tonight. Scott’s succumbing to a series of injuries has been a major factor in both the North Queensland and Queensland team’s decline in potency in recent years.
Brisbane should fall into the final eight with one more win.

NRL (last round 5/8; season tally 111/176)
North Queensland
Souths
Paramatta
Newcastle
Melbourne
Easts
Canberra
Wests

AFL (last round 7/9; season tally 125/198)

Another home and away season comes to its conclusion this week in the AFL. For the first time in a long time two positions in the top four (or five) are uncertain, and there are conceivable scenarios for one of four teams to finish eighth. I think Geelong will probably be first, then Brisbane, West Coast, Richmond, Collingwood, GWS, Essendon, and Western Bulldogs. I also think Brisbane are a good chance to beat Richmond. They played a day earlier, and Richmond’s game was played in wet weather and would have been very draining. If Brisbane can stay close they should finish stronger.
In the NRL anything below sixth is definitely making up numbers. Easts are just waiting for the games where it counts.

NRL (last round 6/8; season tally 106/168)
Paramatta
Penrith
Souths
Cronulla
Wests
Easts
Manly
Melbourne
Canberra

AFL (last round 5/9; season tally 118/189)
Collingwood
Sydney
North Melbourne
Geelong
Greater Western Sydney
West Coast
Western Bulldogs
Brisbane
Port Adelaide

The business end of the season is actually the business end of the season in the AFL. If Brisbane can win at home against Geelong they’re a very good chance of coming first. If they lose they shouldn’t do worse than third. Games against Geelong and Richmond over the next two weeks should prepare them perfectly for finals.
In the NRL it looks as if Easts are finally waking up. Too late to stop Melbourne getting the minor premiership, but as Easts well know that trophy doesn’t really count for much. And Canberra just aren’t quite there yet.

NRL (last round 4/8; season tally 100/160)
Manly
Paramatta
Brisbane
Newcastle
Melbourne
Souths
Easts
Cronulla

AFL (last round 6/9; season tally 113/180)
Sydney
Carlton
Brisbane
Collingwood
Port Adelaide
Fremantle
West Coast
Greater Western Sydney
Hawthorn

Each week seems to bring a couple of random losses in each competition by teams that should be winning.
Seems like Easts might finally have gotten serious in the NRL, and this week’s game against Canberra should provide some insight into where both teams are really at.
In the AFL Brisbane could use a win that would boost their percentage. I think second and third, and maybe even first, will be decided on percentage. If they lost that would be moot.

NRL (last round 6/8; season tally 96/152)
Brisbane
Manly
Cronulla
Saint George
Paramatta
Wests
Canberra
Melbourne

AFL (last round 7/9; season tally 107/171)
Greater Western Sydney
Collingwood
Port Adelaide
Brisbane
Essendon
Geelong
Fremantle
Richmond
West Coast

Another underwhelming week in both competitions. No team in either comp is stamping themselves as the outright obvious pick.
Both Melbourne and Geelong have comfortable leads at the head of their respective tables, but I’m not sure either will win a grand final.
The NRL seems to be waiting for Easts to get out of second gear, I can’t see any other teams playing in the last game of the season; and the AFL has a similar feel about West Coast. Collingwood and Richmond should be capable of more, the other teams in the eight not so much.

NRL (last round 6/8; season tally 90/144)
Wests
Canberra
Cronulla
Melbourne
Manly
Penrith
Souths
Easts
Paramatta

AFL (last round 8/9; season tally 100/162)
North Melbourne
Essendon
Greater Western Sydney
Geelong
Richmond
Adelaide
Collingwood
West Coast
Brisbane