NRL: 6/8 to finish the regular season seems as appropriate as anything.
The average was nearly 72.5%. Which was a lot better than my AFL 60.5%. I would have thought that was unusual and that NRL was harder to tip, but this year the gap in team performance has been huge, while the AFL seemed a little more even among the middle teams. The top four NRL teams won a combined 78 of their 96 games (81%) the next four won 53 of 96 (55%); the top four AFL teams won 68 of their 88 games (77%) the next four won 52 of 88 (59%).
As far as the AFL finals go Melbourne have it to lose, while the remaining three teams will be judged under-performers is they don’t win. It seems a little odd to me that Geelong, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs and Brisbane can all be judged as under-performing if they don’t make or win the Grand Final. Five teams into two grand final positions don’t fit. Five teams to win one Premiership doesn’t fit.
(Draws count as correct)
NRL (last round 6/8; season tally 139/192)
AFL (last round 1/2; season tally 123/204)